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Report 95-9: A Capacity for Growth: Enrollments, Resources, and Facilities for California Higher Education, 1993-94 to 2005-06

Published by The California Postsecondary Education Commission

August 1995

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This report projects enrollment demand within California public higher education from the present through the year 2005, and then discusses numerous issues relating to California's economic and fiscal ability to meet that demand.

The first two chapters of the report provide background on the nature and uses of long-range planning, and provide an overview of several previous Commission planning efforts, most notably the recently published Challenge of the Century (Full Report | Report Summary) (CPEC 95-3, April 1995).

The next section presents the Commission's enrollment demand estimate for the years 1993 to 2005. This is followed by discussions of institutional physical capacity and long-range capital outlay costs, a ten-year projection of General Fund revenues and expenditures, and an overview of capital outlay revenue and spending options. Three appendices offer further explanations of the enrollment projection methodology, Proposition 98 funding, and State bonded debt limitations.

This report contains 16 conclusions and eight recommendations. Among the most significant are the following: (1) California faces an enrollment demand surge of 455,190 students through 2005, with most of those students seeking admission in the final five years of the projections; (2) support budget funding will remain austere, but with reasonable economic growth, may be barely adequate to finance the anticipated expansion; (3) approximately $1 billion per year will be needed for higher education capital outlay, with about 61 percent of that needed to maintain the existing infrastructure, and 39 percent needed for growth; (4) there is no known way that capital outlay funding in such an amount can be raised -- at best, the State may be able to meet just over half of the need; and (5) if the needed funds cannot be raised, California will face many difficult choices in its effort to maintain both access and quality.

The Commission adopted this report at its meeting on August 28, 1995, on recommendation of its Educational Policy and Programs Committee.

Related Topics: Enrollment Demand and Capacity Analysis | Fees, Tuition, Costs and Financial Aid | Facilities Review

Further information may be obtained from the Commission's Research Staff
(916) 445-1000 or via e-mail at

A copy of any publication may be requested from the Commission's Publications Unit
(916) 445-1000 or via e-mail at

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