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Publication Summary

Report 95-14: California Public College and University Enrollment Demand 1994 to 2005: A Report of the California Postsecondary Education Commission

Published by The California Postsecondary Education Commission

July 1995

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This Enrollment Demand Summary provides an overview of California public college and university enrollment demand for the period 1994 to 2005. The Summary is designed as an easy reference with respect to enrollment projection information that is discussed in much greater detail in a forthcoming Commission report entitled "A Capacity for Growth."

This summary document includes a Baseline Projection of enrollment demand and a Low Alternative for each public system of California higher education. Undergraduate enrollment demand projections were developed by the staff of the California Postsecondary Commission. Graduate projections were developed by the Demographic Research Unit of the Department of Finance.

Although enrollment demand is projected to be significant, the figures are lower comparatively than educational planners had anticipated during the 1980's. Recent occurrences within California suggest lower demand than previously forecast. First, participation rates have declined, coinciding with California's most recent recession, rising student fees, and declining state support for higher education. Second, the Department of Finance has lowered its projections of high school graduates from 335,768 to 310,184 by the year 2005. Third, it is anticipated that the burgeoning number of high school graduates -- generally referred to as Tidal Wave II -- will be partially offset in the short-run by a temporary reduction in California's 20-29 age group.

Principally for the aforementioned reasons, the California Postsecondary Education Commission expects near steady-state enrollments over the next several years, with demand growing more rapidly beginning in year 2000.


Related Topics: Enrollment Demand and Capacity Analysis
 

Further information may be obtained from the Commission's Research Staff
(916) 445-1000 or via e-mail at Research_Staff@cpec.ca.gov.

A copy of any publication may be requested from the Commission's Publications Unit
(916) 445-1000 or via e-mail at Publication_Request@cpec.ca.gov.

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